For the third consecutive quarter, two of every three Filipinos say they will vote “No” in a plebiscite on a new constitution “that President Arroyo wants,” according to the November 2006 Social Weather Survey.
The new SWS survey found the balance of opinion opposed to the critical proposals that: (1) the members of Parliament and the Prime Minister may be re-elected any number of times; (2) the interim Parliament will serve until the next election, but will also set the date of the election, and thus there is no limit to its term; and (3) the interim Parliament will make additional amendments or revisions to the Constitution within 45 days.
When asked if they had known that these proposals were part of the Sigaw ng Bayan’s “people’s initiative,” 73% said “No,” validating the Supreme Court’s conclusion that the public could not have known the nature of these crucial proposals, singled out by the Court.
Even those satisfied with GMA say “No” to Cha-Cha
Even among those satisfied with the performance of President Arroyo, the majority say that they disapprove of a new Constitution that she wants.
The “No” vote on Cha-Cha is 79% among those dissatisfied with the President, 57% among those neither satisfied nor dissatisfied, and 54% among those satisfied with her performance.
“No” dominates in all areas
Three-fourths (74%) in Metro Manila will vote “No” in a plebiscite for a new constitution, compared to 85% in September and 83% in June.
The new “No” vote in the rest of Luzon is 67%, compared to 68% in September and 64% in June.
In the Visayas the “No” vote is now 57%, from 56% in September and 60% in June.
In Mindanao the “No” vote is now 69%, from 65% in September and 68% in June.
Three-fourths are likely to vote in a plebiscite
As to their likelihood of voting in a plebiscite on charter change, 44% will surely vote, 29% will probably vote, 9% might be doing something else, and 15% will not be able to vote.
Seventy-eight percent in Mindanao, 72% in Luzon outside Metro Manila, 70% in the Visayas, and 67% in Metro Manila will surely/probably vote if a plebiscite were held today.
Opposition to specific proposals
Following up the Supreme Court’s ruling that the great majority of Sigaw ng Bayan’s signatories did not see the full text of the proposed changes before signing, and therefore could not have known the nature and effect of the proposed changes, the SWS survey asked for opinions about the three critical changes identified by the Court, without naming any proponent.
On allowing the members of the Parliament and the Prime Minister to be re-elected any number of times, the survey found that 37% disapprove, 26% are undecided, and 25% approve.
On allowing the interim Parliament to serve until the next election, and also to set the date of the election, thus putting no limit to its term, 43% disapprove, 26% are undecided, and 19% approve.
On allowing the interim Parliament to make further amendments or revisions to the Constitution within 45 days, the survey found that 34% disapprove, 29% are undecided, and 25% approve.
Failure to identify the proposals with Sigaw ng Bayan
In all areas, most people were unaware that the three proposals were part of Sigaw ng Bayan’s “people’s initiative.”
Seventy-six percent in the rest of Luzon, 74% in Mindanao, 69% in the Visayas and 68% in Metro Manila came to know who was the proponent only when polled.
In all socio-economic classes, most had been unaware of Sigaw as the proponent: 76% in class D, 71% in class E, and 60% in class ABC.